Reviewed in the United States on January 1, 2019. en meer dan één miljoen … Reviewed in the United States on April 19, 2016. Part One and the beginning of Part Two delve into psychology. Full content visible, double tap to read brief content. Mediocristan environments can safely use Gaussian distribution. The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Brief content visible, double tap to read full content. In his 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Talebaddresses human inability to process natural randomness, particularly combinations of low predictability and large impact. Since no one reads, hears, or sees black swans, things that are improbable can be related to the chances of someone finding a black swan - an apparent metaphor. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Through a number of examples, the author aims to show his readers how rare and unpredictable events have a deep and lasting impact … The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. He also describes the "barbell strategy" for investment that he used as a trader, which consists in avoiding medium risk investments and putting 85–90% of money in the safest instruments available and the remaining 10–15% on extremely speculative bets.[16][17]. This is such an impressive book that I could not put it down. To get the free app, enter your mobile phone number. Bring your club to Amazon Book Clubs, start a new book club and invite your friends to join, or find a club that’s right for you for free. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Audible Audiobook – Unabridged Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author), David Chandler (Narrator), Recorded Books (Publisher) & 0 more 4.2 out of 5 stars 1,445 ratings The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable en meer dan één miljoen andere boeken zijn beschikbaar voor Amazon Kindle. This detailed literature summary also contains Topics for Discussion on The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Taleb. [7][8], The second chapter discusses a neuroscientist named Yevgenia Nikolayevna Krasnova, who rejects the distinction between fiction and nonfiction, and her book A Story of Recursion. I immediately obtained Antifragile and am enjoying it immensely.. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan… A central idea in Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict Black Swan events, but to build robustness to negative events and an ability to exploit positive events. He does this by throwing in big names and like I said doing a very shoddy job of covering principles and ideas throughout history that you can tell he got from listening to an introductory 5 min video on youtube or something. He paints a picture of how we have been indoctrinated with modern "knowledge" and have been fooled by it. [29] The Nobel Prize–winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman wrote "The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works" and explains the influence in his own 2011 book Thinking, Fast and Slow. Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. "A critical review of Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. In this book, he explains the phenomenon of Black Swans, i.e. Aristotle's "Prior Analytics" is the most likely original reference that makes use of example syllogisms involving the predicates "white", "black", and "swan." The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Key Takeaways, Analysis, and Review . “It is easy to see that life is the cumulative effect of a handful of [largely unpredictable] significant shocks.” It is a little uneven in terns of organization and consolidating ideas but there is much to be learned in Taleb's work. The Black Swan was dedicated to Mandelbrot. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. [11] He uses them as guides to define the predictability of the environment one is studying. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory. WikiProject Books (Rated Start-class) This ... Random event Happening in your life are black swan, The 26/11 happened in Mumbai for India was a black swan but … The author then elucidates his approach to historical analysis. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, expert on risk and randomness, discusses "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," presented by Harvard Book Store. You're listening to a sample of the Audible audio edition. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (1st (first) Edition) [Hardcover(2007)], Random House; 1st edition (April 17, 2007). [9] The book goes on to reveal that the so-called author is a work of fiction, based in part on Taleb. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. * The highly expected not happening is also a Black Swan. Ships from and sold by Adam'sBooksUSA. "Taleb Outsells Greenspan as Black Swan Gives Worst Turbulence", "9 Books About Your Life That Will Make Your Life better", "Yevgenia Krasnova - the Gem of a Black Swan", "All in a Flap: Beware of Unknown Unknowns", "Why You Should Prepare For Disaster (And How To Do It)", "The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. [19] Thus, the black swan is an oft cited reference in philosophical discussions of the improbable. Taleb has made his living (and a small fortune, now transformed into a large fortune by the 2008 market) in an unusual way -- by financial speculation in contexts where he spots a … Being no expert in finance not sure how much 'actionable intelligence' I was able to gain in terms of investment ideas but his work does apply to many other fields. "[26] Gregg Easterbrook wrote a critical review of The Black Swan in the New York Times[27] to which Taleb replied with a list of logical errors, blaming Easterbrook for not having read the book. Any intelligent person would be much better off reading the books of the people he criticizes so frequently throughout the book. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto), Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto), Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto), Incerto (Deluxe Edition): Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options, Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies (Wiley Finance), Reclaim Your Heart: Personal Insights on breaking free from life's shackles, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto), Rippling: How Social Entrepreneurs Spread Innovation Throughout the World. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders. Reviewed in the United States on September 5, 2017. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable de Taleb, Nassim Nicholas sur AbeBooks.fr - ISBN 10 : 0713999950 - ISBN 13 : 9780713999952 - Allen Lane - 2007 - Couverture rigide The limits of the argument behind "all swans are white" is exposed—it merely is based on the limits of experience (e.g., that every swan one has seen, heard, or read about is white). A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Really a waste of time. Reviewed in the United States on February 21, 2017. Excellent writer well written speaks with truth and wisdom. I have previously … ‘The Black Swan’ is an interesting and unusual book, written in an unusual style by an unusual author. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan… It also analyzes reviews to verify trustworthiness. The main characters of this non fiction, … Not all swans are white, and not all events, no matter what the experts think, are predictable. Enter your mobile number or email address below and we'll send you a link to download the free Kindle App. Home > Book Summary - The Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable The Black Swan is the 2nd book in the five-book series by Nassim Nicholas Taleb on uncertainty. I hope to discover that he has done more beyond the 2nd edition. [21] As of December 2020, it has been cited approximately 10,633 times, 9,000 of which are for the English-language edition. [1], The book is part of Taleb's five volume series, titled the Incerto including Fooled by Randomness (2001), The Black Swan (2007–2010), The Bed of Procrustes (2010–2016), Antifragile (2012), and Skin in the Game (2018).[2]. In his 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Taleb addresses human inability to process natural randomness, particularly combinations of low predictability and large impact. I really don't know what he means by this, it's like he doesn't have any understanding of a probability distribution or confidence intervals. Seriously, anyone versed in any of these subjects will be able to tell after reading a little bit that the guy that is shouting phony at everyone else is actually the biggest phony of anyone. The first 200 pages rehash the same thing and are mind-numbingly redundant: Uncertainty is uncertain, the world is uncertain, and we should, and this is one of many parts where it gets self-contradictory and vague, be aware of uncertainty that under his method can't be perceived except after the fact. Something went wrong. More specifically, Aristotle uses the white swan as an example of necessary relations and the black swan as improbable. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey", by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white". extreme negative or positive events. Likewise, not matching the idea of success … There's a problem loading this menu right now. [24] It was published in 32 languages.[25]. [18] It was a common expression in 16th century London, as a statement that describes impossibility, deriving from the old world presumption that 'all swans must be white', because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers. Contents Free shipping for many products! One sees events go in and events go out, but one has no way of determining which produced what effect. [15] He recommends avoiding unnecessary dependence on large-scale harmful predictions, while being less cautious with smaller matters, such as going to a picnic. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Great Read Excellent Author Must Have For Sure, Reviewed in the United States on August 18, 2016. The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable is a book that focuses on what has now come to be known as the Black Swan Theory. The small publishing firm became a big corporation, and Krasnova became famous. Taleb acknowledges a contradiction in the book. Nassim is way out of his league on many elements in this book. The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. Instead, our system considers things like how recent a review is and if the reviewer bought the item on Amazon. Reviewed in the United States on October 17, 2017. Mathematics professor David Aldous argued that "Taleb is sensible (going on prescient) in his discussion of financial markets and in some of his general philosophical thought, but tends toward irrelevance or ridiculous exaggeration otherwise. ", There is a contradiction; this book is a story, and I prefer to use stories and vignettes to illustrate our gullibility about stories and our preference for the dangerous compression of narratives.... You need a story to displace a story. Consider that many Black Swans can be caused and exacerbated by their being unexpected. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan… [14] He then takes the reader into the history of skepticism. This item: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (1st (first) Edition… by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Unknown Binding $22.91 Only 2 left in stock - order soon. Taleb shows that black swans, like 9/11, cannot be foreseen and have an immeasurable impact on the world. It spent 36 weeks on the New York Times best-seller list. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory. What You Do Not Know Black Swan logic makes what you don’t know far more relevant than what you do know. In this book, he explains the phenomenon of Black Swans, i.e. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Penguin, London, Second edition, 2010 xxxii, 444 pp ISBN 978-0-1410-3459-1 R233.00 Price The Black Swan and the owl of Minerva: Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the historians Bruce S. Bennett˜ Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan,1 and some of his other writings, put Nasim Nicholas Taleb is a well-known voice in the subject areas of risk, randomness, and uncertainty. The book focuses on the extreme impact of certain kinds of rare and unpredictable events (outliers) and humans tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events retrospectively. PDF | On Feb 1, 2008, Gene Callahan published Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate Nassim Taleb. A BLACK SWAN is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required. Metaphors and stories are far more potent (alas) than ideas; they are also easier to remember and more fun to read. [5] Part Four contains advice on how to approach the world in the face of uncertainty and still enjoy life. Nassim Nicholas Taleb ’sThe Black Swan is a fascinating but deeply flawed book. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Home > Book Summary - The Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable The Black Swan is the 2nd book in the five-book series by Nassim Nicholas Taleb on uncertainty. Free shipping for many products! She published her book on the web and was discovered by a small publishing company; they published her unedited work and the book became an international bestseller. One last thing he talks about attending conferences (that he presumably paid to be at) and asking the presenters "the hard questions" and being immensely bored with their "gaussian" attitudes, but first he probably doesn't even have to be there, if he's bored just leave don't write a book about it, second, I don't know if they are tough questions Nassim or it is your demeanor and pomp that allegedly made these intellectual giants boil with rage at him. [3] Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are vulnerable to hazardous Black Swan events and are exposed to losses beyond those predicted by their defective financial models. To calculate the overall star rating and percentage breakdown by star, we don’t use a simple average. In Extremistan environments, a Gaussian distribution should be used at one's own peril. Preview: The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a philosophical treatment of Taleb's research on highly improbable, high-impact events. Find all the books, read about the author, and more. extremely unpredictable events that have a massive impact on our societies and the course of history. He really harps, literally every 5 pages, on how the bell-curve is Satan's brainchild. Not all swans are white, and not all events, no matter what the experts think, are predictable. [12] In this part he quotes Benoit Mandelbrot and his critique of the Gaussian distribution.[13]. Nassim Taleb. Help others learn more about this product by uploading a video! Free shipping for many products! The term black swan was a Latin expression: its oldest reference is in the poet Juvenal's expression that "a good person is as rare as a black swan" ("rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno", 6.165). He gives a cursory brush to many topics that you can tell he has heard about once and his explanation is the extent of his knowledge on them. So, she experienced two black swans. Chapter four brings together the topics discussed earlier into a narrative about a turkey before Thanksgiving who is fed and treated well for many consecutive days, only to be slaughtered and served as a meal. I almost don't want to leave a review to give it any possible credence it might gain. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb EPUB The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. Your selected delivery location is beyond seller's shipping coverage for this item. Black Swan logic makes what you don’t know far more relevant than what you do know. He uses an exact metaphor, the Black Swan idea to argue against the "unknown, the abstract, and imprecise uncertain—white ravens, pink elephants, or evaporating denizens of a remote planet orbiting Tau Ceti. The book has been described by The Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II. There was a problem loading your book clubs. Trust no one! Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact.Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a … Please try your request again later. Top subscription boxes – right to your door, Visit Amazon's Nassim Nicholas Taleb Page, © 1996-2020, Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by the essayist, scholar and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Part one: Umberto Eco's anti-library, or how we seek validation. The term "black swan" was originally commonly used in sixteenth century Europe to describe a sense of improbability. He says that the bell-curve doesn't predict black swans, i.e. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it … In chapter thirteen, the book discusses what can be done regarding “epistemic arrogance”, which occurs whenever people begin to think they know more than they actually do. It was released on April 17, 2007 by Random House. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Paperback – 28 Feb. 2008 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author) 4.3 out of 5 stars 2,188 ratings #1 … Talk:The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Audible Audiobook – Unabridged Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author), David Chandler (Narrator), Recorded Books (Publisher) 4.3 out of 5 stars 2,899 ratings See all formats and editions He gives just enough of a feeling of an assurance of his know-how to the uninformed to keep them hooked and ready to not be fooled by those smart guys, meanwhile he is fooling his readers most of all. Note that, by symmetry the occurrence of a highly improbable event is the equivalent of the nonoccurrence of a highly probable one. His pompous style is painful to read. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. With over 1,000 reviews already don't think I can add much beyond that I really enjoyed this book, Probably should have read the 2nd edition but I picked up the 1st one cheap and still found it very worthwhile. Warning: both books require rereading as they are conceptually quite dense. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. He thinks very highly of himself, but downplays it throughout the book in the subterfuge of a demagogue. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new at the best online prices at eBay! The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. 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